BGonline.org Forums

Crawford Rule Brainteaser

Posted By: Bill
Date: Friday, 21 December 2012, at 3:04 p.m.

In Response To: Crawford Rule Brainteaser (Sam Pottle)

I don't see how it could help at this score. Discounting backgammons, there are four scenarios: Gammon loss, loss, win and gammon win.

If I lose a gammon in the first match, it doesn't help.

If I just lose one, then we are at -3, -1 and I am happy to be able to double at first opportunity. But winning two points only gets me to -1, -1, which is only very marginally better than -2, -1. The only way that making the deal helps is if I can win a gammon in the second game.

If I win one point, then the score is -2, -2 and the presence or absence of the Crawford rule is just as likely to help my opponent as me, so the deal isn't worth anything.

Finally, if I win a gammon now, I am favored -1, -2 and the deal cost me dearly.

It seams that the (loss, win gammon) scenario is much less likely than the (win gammon) scenario. So no deal. Maybe my opponent will pay me.

Messages In This Thread

• Crawford Rule Brainteaser
  AP -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 4:16 a.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    Joe Russell -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 5:04 a.m.
    • Crawford Rule favors the trailer ATS
      Joe Russell -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 12:24 p.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    Phil Simborg -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 5:49 a.m.
    • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
      Sam Pottle -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 6:15 a.m.
      • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
        Bill -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 3:04 p.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    Sam Pottle -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 6:24 a.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 4:17 p.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    AP -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 7:08 p.m.
    • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 8:54 p.m.
      • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 1:03 a.m.
        • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
          Bob Koca -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 2:19 a.m.
          • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
            AP -- Sunday, 23 December 2012, at 11:34 p.m.
            • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 24 December 2012, at 6:54 p.m.
              • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
                AP -- Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 6:19 a.m.
        • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
          Phil Simborg -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 5:23 a.m.
          • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
            Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 3:28 p.m.
          • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
            Bob Koca -- Monday, 24 December 2012, at 6:50 p.m.
            • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
              Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 27 December 2012, at 4:30 p.m.
              • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
                Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 December 2012, at 4:52 p.m.
          • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
            Bob Koca -- Monday, 24 December 2012, at 7:02 p.m.
            • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
              Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 27 December 2012, at 4:27 p.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 10:15 p.m.
    • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
      Joe Russell -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 8:57 a.m.
      • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 23 December 2012, at 5:45 p.m.
        • Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- one final qualitative concern
          Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 23 December 2012, at 5:52 p.m.
          • Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- final qualitative concern (& contention)
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 25 December 2012, at 9:23 p.m.
            • Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- final qualitative concern (& contention)
              Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 25 December 2012, at 10:28 p.m.
              • Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- final qualitative concern (& contention)
                Sam Pottle -- Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 12:58 a.m.
                • Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- final qualitative concern (& contention)
                  Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 10:09 a.m.
            • continuous model bias
              AP -- Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 6:35 a.m.
              • continuous model bias
                Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 6:26 p.m.
        • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
          Joe Russell -- Sunday, 23 December 2012, at 7:05 p.m.
          • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 25 December 2012, at 9:12 p.m.
  • What about Beavers in Matches at certain scores?
    Phil Simborg -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 2:32 p.m.
    • What about Beavers in Matches at certain scores?
      Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 10:44 p.m.
    • Suggestion
      AP -- Sunday, 23 December 2012, at 11:55 p.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser - Rollout
    eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 24 December 2012, at 5:43 p.m.