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Rollout: Crash!

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 1:05 a.m.

In Response To: Crash! (Timothy Chow)

Can't believe this isn't a clear double. Does XG2 double?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 80
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABBbCBB----A----c-Ba-fc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 66.71% (G: 20.10% B: 0.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.29% (G: 3.25% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.16% (G: 20.47% B: 0.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.84% (G: 3.53% B: 0.01%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.334
Double:+1.042
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.820
Double/Take:+0.813 (-0.007)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.180)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.806...+0.834)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.796...+0.830)
Double Decision confidence: 72.8%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 6 hours 16 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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