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Rollout: Which bar to slot?

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 10:05 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: Which bar to slot? (Timothy Chow)

I believe there maybe a dominant reason why 24/18 is correct in the actual and why 13/7 is correct in the variant. The risk/reward ratio between race and backgame potential favours race in the actual position but in the variant one can risk a little more. IMO, race and backgame are on opposite extremes of the gameplan continuum.

There's a scene near the beginning of AVP #Alien Versus Predator# in which plucky environmentalist Lex Woods #Sanaa Lathan# and nerdy scientist Graham Miller #Ewen Bremner# are flying by 'copter towards the South Pole. A light comes on in the cockpit, causing Miller to nervously enquire why. "That means we've reached the point of no return," replies Lex knowingly.

"The point of no return"

I believe the point of no return is 70 pips. As blue has a 41 pip after his roll of 61 his point of no return favours playing boldly. The cut off point is 35 pips and blue is 34 pips behind in the actual position and should race. Not race, race but game plans that move in that direction - like holding games.

NBM

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