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BGonline.org Forums
Not your everyday X-Mass position
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Not your everyday X-Mass position (Dmitriy Obukhov)
Date: Sunday, 23 December 2012, at 2:03 a.m.
White's takepoint is 33% and I'm sure he has a take since he's a huge favorite if he rolls a 6 next time and is far from dead if he doesn't.
Blue's redoubling window opens a lot lower than normal since a clear majority of his losses figure to be gammons in this position. These will cost him the match regardless if he recubes or not. So the main loss from redoubling occurs when Blue loses a single game and these probably only constitute around 20% of Blue's losses. The only other loss from redoubling occurs when Blue wins a lucky gammon himself. This is pretty minute so I'll say that the loss from redoubling is then 20% of his MWC at 4a-2a (around 33%), or 6.6%.
The gain from redoubling is 33% which is the difference between his MWC at 2a-4a (67%) and winning the match (100%). So loss/loss + gain tells us that the redoubling window opens at a little over 15% and closes at 67%.
Blue's chances are definately in this range so redoubling can be considered. The large redoubling window implies that Blue should be looser than normal with this recube.
Are there some market losers? Yes. 66 or 55 followed by a non-6 should do it. Also, Blue rolls about anything else followed by White rolling one of his 5 blotting numbers (53,43,22).
Are these enough? I think so. R/T looks right to me.
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