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how to play 5-4

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 24 December 2012, at 3:35 p.m.

In Response To: how to play 5-4 (mzzzed)

–

120

2X1X1X2X2X2X ' ' ' '1X2O

'1O2O2O2X3O '3O2X '2O '
Match score tied at 15-away106
Position ID: q20QDAPanGMGAA Match ID: UYnyAVAAAAAE

Tough problem. Here are the four candidates I considered.

  1. A (Attack) = 8/3, 6/2
  2. N (Near) = 13/8, 6/2
  3. O (Outer) = 11/7, 11/6
  4. o (outer) = 13/4

The only safe play is A, but it does not figure to stay safe in the follow up. On his next turn, Blue will choose, or be forced, to leave a blot about half the time.

Primarily because Blue does not have a claim when paying now works, this not a classic pay-now/pay-later position. Nevertheless, it does have many elements of one.

  1. Is Blue’s situation deteriorating? Yes
  2. Is White’s situation improving? Yes, for a turn at least. After that, White will face breaking his board or one of his outside points.
  3. Does Blue have a near claim if he gets away with leaving a shot now? No. Although Blue may have a double, White will be taking.

I am inclined to break the 11pt, with O = 11/7 11/6, while White still has two blots in his inner board. By slotting the bar point, Blue threatens to create another safe landing spot for himself. So long as he is not hit, he will buy some timing for himself, even when he cannot make the bar point.

Mike

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