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Pick a six - RO

Posted By: Chase
Date: Tuesday, 25 December 2012, at 11:40 a.m.

In Response To: Pick a six (Chase)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 176
Unlimited Game
Beaver
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBB-aE-AA--cBb--c-ca-A--A:1:-1:1:64:0:0:2:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.Rollout1Bar/21 22/16eq: -0.166
Player:
Opponent:		48.72% (G:21.36% B:2.66%)
51.28% (G:14.43% B:0.99%)		Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.184...-0.149) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/15eq: -0.211 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		47.31% (G:21.27% B:2.44%)
52.69% (G:15.34% B:1.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.225...-0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 10 seconds
3.XG Roller++Bar/21 9/3eq: -0.245 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:		44.89% (G:19.51% B:1.96%)
55.11% (G:14.45% B:0.69%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/21 8/2eq: -0.276 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:		43.97% (G:19.17% B:1.99%)
56.03% (G:14.91% B:0.73%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/21 13/7eq: -0.470 (-0.304)
Player:
Opponent:		39.23% (G:16.70% B:1.75%)
60.77% (G:19.98% B:1.54%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Seems to me b/15 should be best. This duplicates W's 3s and 1s, making it harder for him to both hit and make his 5pt. This turns out to be wrong, and not by a small amount.

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