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continuous model bias

Posted By: AP
Date: Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 6:35 a.m.

In Response To: Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- final qualitative concern (& contention) (Chuck Bower)

In this specific example, the continuous model does seem to give the leader more of an edge by turning the Crawford Rule off (1.8% MWC based on my calculations using continuous model; .9% MWC based on the posted XG rollout).

But in general, I am just not sure this pattern will hold. If I compare a MET based off continuous model (assuming 26.8% gammons to be consistent with XG MET) with the XG MET created from rollouts, there are some scores that are better for the leader and others that are worse...both tables are always within 1% of each other though. Maybe I'm missing something...

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