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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 8:22 a.m.

In Response To: Christmas Position (Stick)

This is from a match of mine on dailygammon. I rolled 66 here and thought to myself "ugh, the worst". I knew I'd at least have winning chances if I could reroll and my gammon chances still had to be in the stratosphere. In the match itself I amazingly enough ran off the gammon.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 43
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 181
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=------E-C----D------bdccbC:1:1:1:66:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 66

1.Rollout1Bar/19(3) 13/7eq: -1.990
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:98.98% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.991...-1.988)
Duration: 2 minutes 57 seconds
1 828 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45413448
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 43
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 181
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=------E-C----D------bdccbC:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 1.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 1.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 98.68% (G:97.33% B:4.12%) 98.58% (G:97.09% B:4.49%)
Cubeless Equities -1.988 -3.975
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-1.981±0.004 (-1.986..-1.977)
Redouble/Take:-3.999 (-2.017)±0.009 (-4.007..-3.990)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+2.981)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 28.8%
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85465647
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds

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