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Lopsided score cube action

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 28 December 2012, at 7:51 a.m.

In Response To: Lopsided score cube action (John O'Hagan)

  • Double/Pass for 13a 1a C let's call that 2%. (total educated guess)
  • Double/Take/Lose and the match is over, 0%.
  • Double/Take/Win for 5a 3a or 35%.

We'd be risking 2% to gain 33%. That gives us a take point of approx. 6%. (risk/risk+gain = 2/(2+35)

It has been shown before on these forums that being behind a roll in these bear off situations puts you in miserable shape. The rule of thumb I go with in general is the leader is at least 90% and often more. Here the taker is behind more than a roll so his winning chances have to be abysmal. I'm saying double/pass.

Stick

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