OTB I played bar/18. We have the advantage so 7/2* is too desperate. The question is whether we're in enough danger of getting primed that we need to enter on the 20pt. It seems that the answer is, "not quite." White's blockade is gappy enough that she probably prefers to attack us right away (despite our stronger board) than to try to outprime us.
In the variant shown below, I've moved White's 3pt to her 5pt. This gives her both a better board and a better prime. Now stepping out comes a little ahead of hanging back. More significantly, perhaps, is that our plight has worsened enough for hitting to become a candidate, possibly the best.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aaBBBBB-A--bBba-b-b-bb-AA:1:-1:1:52:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 9/4 | eq: +0.309 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.87% (G:28.76% B:1.48%)
37.13% (G:10.88% B:0.61%) | Conf: ± 0.017 (+0.292...+0.326)
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/18 | eq: +0.259 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.16% (G:25.73% B:2.32%)
37.84% (G:11.99% B:0.71%) | Conf: ± 0.016 (+0.243...+0.275)
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 9/7 | eq: +0.237 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.15% (G:26.21% B:2.25%)
38.85% (G:12.35% B:0.56%) | Conf: ± 0.017 (+0.220...+0.254)
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 7/2* | eq: +0.209 (-0.100) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.92% (G:32.30% B:2.15%)
40.08% (G:15.73% B:1.81%) | Conf: ± 0.017 (+0.192...+0.226)
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant. Oh crap, upon preview I see that I only copied the top two plays. Arghh! Well, this rollout probably wasn't long enough anyway, so maybe someone else can volunteer to do this position "properly." Sorry.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aaBBBBB-A--bBba-b-bbb--AA:1:-1:1:52:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 7/2* | eq: -0.020 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.65% (G:28.40% B:1.77%)
47.35% (G:17.07% B:1.58%) | Conf: ± 0.018 (-0.038...-0.002)
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/18 | eq: -0.040 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.23% (G:21.49% B:1.67%)
46.77% (G:13.78% B:0.84%) | Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.056...-0.024)
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes |
|
| |
1 1642 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21