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Introducing Neil's Rule of .6

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 28 December 2012, at 4:53 p.m.

In Response To: Lopsided score cube action (Stick)

Neil's Rule of .6 (I'll name it after myself, since I've never seen this mentioned anywhere nor heard any player mention this fact) is used for determining ME at Crawford many away situations. It works for both Crawford odd and Crawford even.

It starts at 6a1aC where the trailer's ME is 11.27% (OK if all you memorize is 11.3%). To get the ME at 8aC (the next Crawford even score down the table) multiply 11.27% by .6. This gives 6.76% and actual is 6.75%.

Next multiply the 8aC result by .6 to get the 10aC result. 6.76 x .6 = 4.06 (actual is 4.07%). And finally to get 12aC multiply 4.06 x .6 = 2.44 (actual is 2.45%).

Can't multiply easily by .6 a few times...well .6 x .6 is .36 and .6 x.6 x.6 is .216 and .6 to the 4th power is .1296. BG players tend to know powers of 6 due to dice combinations and that 36 x 36 = 1296 is used for rollouts.

Let say we want to get the ME at 14aC and weren't born with an i7 chip in our brain. We can approximate since .1296 is so close to .13 and simply multiply 11.3 x .13. We can easily multiply 11 x .13 and get 1.43 and then add in (.3 x .13) and get 1.47% for 14aC. OMG I just checked the XG2 MET and 1.47% is the exact value for 14aC !!

In a recent match, I needed to know the ME at 8aC and had couldn't remember it so I used my method to come up with about 6 3/4%.

You'll see that this works for Craw-odd as well. 7aC is 9.28% x .6 = 5.57 x .6 again = 3.34% x .6 again = 2.00% x .6 again = 1.2%. Hmmm..the method is even more accutate if you just remember 6aC as 11.3% and 7aC as 9.3% but there's certainly no OTB reason to need to remember ME's to two decimal places anyhow as no human can judge even a race that exactly.

So in the actual position a more exact calculation using the ME from the table or Neil's Rule of .6 results in a TP over 7%.

No way can this race be won that often, making this a BIG pass.

... neilkaz ...

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