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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 29 December 2012, at 12:31 a.m.

In Response To: Lopsided score cube action (John O'Hagan)

A big pass even ATS. Black needs 5.7% to take and has only 3%. The EPC's are about 43 to 57 1/2.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 33
13 point match
pip: 24
score: 10

is Player 1
XGID=-DCBB-a----------------df-:1:1:1:00:10:0:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 97.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 97.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 2.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 2.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.941 +1.362
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.970 (-0.030)±0.001 (+0.970..+0.971)
Redouble/Take:+1.230 (+0.230)±0.001 (+1.229..+1.231)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

Here's a rolls vs. rolls position with EPC's of 43-57. The dog's chances are just 1.5%.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 15
13 point match
pip: 11
score: 10

is Player 1
XGID=-K----------------------o-:1:1:1:00:10:0:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 98.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 98.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 1.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 1.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.971 +1.417
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.990 (-0.010)±0.000 (+0.990..+0.991)
Redouble/Take:+1.351 (+0.351)±0.000 (+1.351..+1.351)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 0.5 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

Here's a pips vs. pips bearoff with roughly the same EPC's (42.4 to 56.9). The dog wins 7% here which makes it a small no redouble ATS.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 50
13 point match
pip: 36
score: 10

is Player 1
XGID=----BBC------------cdc----:1:1:1:00:10:0:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 92.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 92.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 7.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 7.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.859 +1.207
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.917±0.001 (+0.916..+0.919)
Redouble/Take:+0.888 (-0.029)±0.000 (+0.888..+0.888)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.083)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 40.9 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

So the EPC's by themselves don't tell the whole story - the position types matter as well.

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