I messed up this too good checker, play can you do better? **ROLLOUT**

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Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Saturday, 29 December 2012, at 10:14 a.m.

In Response To: I messed up this too good checker, play can you do better? **ROLLOUT** (Timothy Chow)

Tim:
That's a plausible hypothesis, though do we really know that these are the top two plays? What about 11/9 4/3(2)? Or 11/10 6/5 4/3(2)?

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 189

7 point match

pip: 99
score: 3

Blue is Player 1

XGID=acB-BBCBA--AcB---cabb-----:0:0:1:11:3:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 5/3(2) eq: +1.113
Player:
Opponent: 72.24% (G:46.54% B:9.37%)
27.76% (G:1.74% B:0.07%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+1.109...+1.118) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 20 seconds
2. Rollout² 11/9 6/4 eq: +1.087 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent: 71.04% (G:46.95% B:10.09%)
28.96% (G:1.85% B:0.10%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (+1.077...+1.096) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 57 seconds
3. Rollout³ 11/9 4/3(2) eq: +1.062 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent: 70.57% (G:46.33% B:9.77%)
29.43% (G:1.92% B:0.12%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (+1.053...+1.071) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 37 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 8/4 eq: +1.060 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent: 70.55% (G:47.01% B:10.47%)
29.45% (G:1.67% B:0.10%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+1.055...+1.066) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 56 seconds
5. Rollout³ 11/10 6/5 4/3(2) eq: +1.034 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent: 70.15% (G:46.31% B:10.70%)
29.85% (G:1.99% B:0.12%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (+1.025...+1.044) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 17 seconds
6. Rollout⁴ 11/10 8/7 4/3(2) eq: +1.022 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent: 69.89% (G:45.00% B:9.06%)
30.11% (G:1.89% B:0.08%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (+1.009...+1.035) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 42 seconds

¹ 12415 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

² 6236 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

³ 4722 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

⁴ 2147 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2