I reasoned exactly as John did. Make the five point and then 7/6(2) seemed clear. Stick did well with QF, but I think there are still many surprises in the rollout:
- 13/12(3) 2/1 is the winner.
- Despite white's strong board, leaving a fly shot with 13/12, 6/5(2) 2/1 is a close second.
- Of the plays that make the five point, 7/6(2) is fourth best!
One factor may be that the race is much closer than usual for a holding game. White is threatening to run a single checker and the blot on our ace point is a liability.
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 101 | | 7 point match | pip: 92
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-ACBb-D-B----C---aabbcbb--:0:0:1:11:4:3:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/12(3) 2/1 | eq: +0.436 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.90% (G:1.60% B:0.03%)
39.10% (G:1.58% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.430...+0.441) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/12 6/5(2) 2/1 | eq: +0.421 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.27% (G:3.78% B:0.18%)
40.73% (G:5.11% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.417...+0.426) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/5(2) 2/1(2) | eq: +0.377 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.89% (G:2.61% B:0.06%)
40.11% (G:3.10% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.372...+0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 6/5(2) 3/1 | eq: +0.366 (-0.070) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.58% (G:2.53% B:0.05%)
40.42% (G:3.06% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.361...+0.371) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 8/7(2) 6/5(2) | eq: +0.364 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.07% (G:2.61% B:0.06%)
39.93% (G:3.31% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.358...+0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
In the contrasting position with the ace point already made, the normal 8/7(2) 6/5(2) is hugely right.
| | White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 101 | | 7 point match | pip: 91
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBBb-D-B----C---aabbcbb--:0:0:1:11:4:3:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/7(2) 6/5(2) | eq: +0.508 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.08% (G:2.46% B:0.05%)
36.92% (G:2.58% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.498...+0.519) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/12(2) 6/5(2) | eq: +0.466 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.82% (G:3.66% B:0.14%)
40.18% (G:5.30% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.455...+0.476) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/5(2) 3/1 | eq: +0.360 (-0.149) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.60% (G:2.55% B:0.06%)
40.40% (G:3.19% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.350...+0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 6/5(4) | eq: +0.351 (-0.157) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.08% (G:2.06% B:0.03%)
40.92% (G:3.24% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.340...+0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 6/5(2) 3/2(2) | eq: +0.294 (-0.215) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.05% (G:1.60% B:0.03%)
42.95% (G:3.55% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.284...+0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2