A lot of views but not many responses. Sometimes I wonder how many people look at a position, choose a play, then check a bot, and then post if and only if the bot agrees with them.
Here I hit. I did not consider 7/3. I'm intrigued by poseidon's analysis, which I'd paraphrase as, we're getting into a blot-hitting contest regardless, so let's strengthen our board first. Making an extra home-board point usually helps from the point of view of gammons won (and sometimes, gammons lost) but it's rare in a blot-hitting contest to forgo a chance to hit when we have a stronger board.
I've included a variant below (XGR+ only, no rollout) to illustrate some other subtleties with the position. The rollout of the original position is courtesy of a friend of mine with XG2.
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 148 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---AaBBBA-B-fB---cAd---AaA:1:-1:1:42:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 7/3 | eq: +0.012 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.91% (G:21.98% B:1.06%)
45.09% (G:12.96% B:0.65%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.006...+0.018)
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 8/4* | eq: -0.020 (-0.032) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.07% (G:19.63% B:0.81%)
44.93% (G:14.49% B:0.77%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.027...-0.013)
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 18/16 | eq: -0.044 (-0.056) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.11% (G:19.62% B:0.78%)
45.89% (G:14.17% B:0.80%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.050...-0.038)
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 8/6 | eq: -0.066 (-0.078) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.65% (G:19.16% B:0.86%)
46.35% (G:14.98% B:0.77%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.072...-0.060)
Duration: 58 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 23/21 | eq: -0.082 (-0.094) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.55% (G:17.39% B:0.76%)
47.45% (G:11.25% B:0.41%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.088...-0.076)
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 148 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---AaBBBAB--fB---cAd---AaA:1:-1:1:42:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/21 18/16 | eq: -0.009 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.60% (G:19.62% B:0.74%)
45.40% (G:13.35% B:0.69%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 8/4* | eq: -0.017 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.61% (G:18.94% B:0.75%)
45.39% (G:13.70% B:0.72%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | Bar/21 8/6 | eq: -0.022 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.10% (G:19.43% B:0.75%)
45.90% (G:13.43% B:0.64%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | Bar/21 23/21 | eq: -0.022 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.25% (G:17.61% B:0.63%)
46.75% (G:10.15% B:0.36%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 7/3 | eq: -0.035 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.88% (G:19.70% B:0.86%)
47.12% (G:12.42% B:0.62%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 18/14 | eq: -0.062 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.20% (G:18.13% B:0.63%)
47.80% (G:11.77% B:0.57%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21