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BGonline.org Forums
Introducing Jason's Rule of 2/3 =)
Posted By: Jason Lee In Response To: Introducing Chuck's Rule of 0.7868 :) (Chuck Bower)
Date: Sunday, 30 December 2012, at 2:16 a.m.
I can't be outdone. Neil's got Crawford scores, Chuck takes down 2-away scores. Here you go... 3-away scores. =) The numbers are not as robust as Neil's and Chuck's numbers, but it's not a horrible first approximation.
In contrast with Chuck, I write M-away/N-away to mean you, the dear reader, is M-away.
To get the ME for N-away/3-away, multiply your ME at (N-2)-away/3-away by 2/3. There are other numbers that might work slightly better than 2/3, but it's such an easy thing to remember (and not terribly hard to compute) that I had to keep it.
Start with 6-away/3-away, at 28.88%, multiply by 2/3 to get 19.25% for 8-away/3-away. Actual value: 19.53%.
8-away/3-away at 19.25%, multiply by 2/3 to get 12.83% for 10-away/3-away. Actual value: 12.94%.
10-away/3-away at 12.83%, multiply by 2/3 to get 8.55% for 12-away/3-away. Actual value: 8.52%
12-away/3-away at 8.55%, multiply by 2/3 to get 5.7% for 14-away/3-away. Actual value: 5.56%.
Start with 7-away/3-away at 23.79%, multiply by 2/3 to get 15.86% for 9-away/3-away, actual value 15.98%.
9-away/3-away at 15.86%, multiply by 2/3 to get 10.57% for 11-away/3-away, actual value 10.56% (woo hoo!).
11-away/3-away at 10.57%, multiply by 2/3 to get 7.05% for 13-away/3-away, actual value 6.93%.
13-away/3-away at 7.05%, multiply by 2/3 to get 4.7% for 15-away/3-away, actual value 4.51%.
Neil and Chuck gave some specific mental computational tricks... I'll leave those out for now, but fortunately, multiplying by 2/3 isn't so onerous. It's certainly not any harder than multiplying by 0.7868. =)
JLee
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