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Interesting problem. Let me begin by enumerating the candidates I see:
Neither of the running plays, R (Run) = 22/13 and (run) = 24/15, attract me. The big question is whether to hit. If Blue decides not to, then the 6 must surely be played down to make the bar point. Depending how Blue then plays the 3, White may have trouble when he enters on a roll containing a 2 or 5. When Blue plays Z, 33, 32 and 42 force White to open up a blot on his side of the board. When Blue plays O, add 51 and 53 to that list. Z seems to be the better of the two, however, because it moves the rear checker into escape position, something that is always important a prime-vs.-prime battle. Hitting is not obviously better. White will enter both checkers on the first try 25% of the time. He enters at least 1 checker 75% of the time. 30% of the time he will roll a 3, entering and hitting at the same time. After hitting with the 3, one choice for the 6 is to run a checker into the outfield. This gives up the anchor, but secures Blue’s timing. The other alternative is to make the bar point, hemming White in, and bringing another checker into the zone. Blue has White outtimed, so running is not necessarily crucial. Besides, running has the additional disadvantage of creating a couple of crushing doublets, 33 and 44, for White. I don’t really care for Z, because it sets up a very close prime-vs.-prime game. Hitting seems much more likely to swing the game in Blue’s favor. Of the hitting plays I tend towards N. Blue has a small timing advatage, so this may be one of those prime-vs.-prime battles where escaping is not the top priority. The times I write the longest repsonses are often the times when I am most unsure. This is one of them. Mike | ||||||||||||
