–
Over the board, I would jump at this chance to pay now. Fives don’t grow on trees. Quiz factor (QF) suggests that is what you did, so making the 1pt is probably correct. Here’s something to consider: Although there are only 6 ways in 36 to roll a doublet, there are also 10 additional rolls with a 5. So, if you choose to pay later, there are 16 rolls that are either better than this 53, or else are roughly the same. (By roughly the same, I mean that you would have the choice of breaking the midpoint while landing a checker on your 8pt.) And that’s on the next turn alone. If you have to play inside next turn, the same 16 “good” rolls will exist two turns from now. On your third turn, you may no longer have the 8pt, but even then you will have those doublets as a possibility. Do those long term chances add up to more than the 23/36 offerred by paying now? I would not be surprised to learn that they do. Mike | ||||||||||||
