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This looks like a Next at first glance

Posted By: poseidon
Date: Tuesday, 8 January 2013, at 9:08 a.m.

In Response To: This looks like a Next at first glance (AdamStocks)

White needs 2 points to win the match and has a huge advantage in this game. His gammon value is very big but even if he hits and makes the 2 point his gammon rate is rather low.

Cubellesly it is obvious that the best play is 8/3*/2 with second best the safe but ugly play 6/1, 2/1 which tranfers the problem of leaving a blot to the next roll.

The problem with 8/3*/2 is that it practically kills the value of the cube for white and gives a joker to black (3-5), as white's next roll will decide the outcome of this game in the most part. If white rolls a 3-5 he becomes the huge favourite, otherwise he is huge underdog with white having some gammon chances.

Overall I think that the safety from 3-5 joker and the cube value overcome the small gammon chances and better distribution of 8/3*/2.

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