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Play 43 - 15k 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Chase
Date: Tuesday, 8 January 2013, at 6:27 p.m.

In Response To: Play 43 - 15k 3-ply XG2 Rollout (Taper_Mike)

My over the board play would have been 13/10 6/3, maximizing ways to make the bar point and not slotting the 2pt, since it gives White good 1s to go with his good 6s. After considering the rollouts, I noticed something I missed before: all of White's 1s are already (relatively) good, as he can absorb all of them by stepping up to the 2pt while keeping his 6-prime intact. So our slotting the 2pt doesn't come at as high a risk as I feared.

To confirm this, I did some tinkering with XG++. Move White's spare from his 6 to his 5 point and his 41 becomes a prime-breaking roll. Move it to his 4 point, and 31 breaks as well. Without those prime-breaking rolls, slotting our 2pt is much less dangerous. As White's spare is pushed forward, his number of prime-breaking 1s increases, and his ability to hit as he breaks becomes a bigger deal -- and the non-slotting plays (including my choice of 13/10 6/3) emerge as better options.

Messages In This Thread

• Play 43
  Mr Majestyk -- Sunday, 6 January 2013, at 4:50 p.m.
  • Play 43
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 6 January 2013, at 7:30 p.m.
    • Play 43
      Poseidon -- Sunday, 6 January 2013, at 10:09 p.m.
      • Play 43
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 6 January 2013, at 11:44 p.m.
    • Play 43
      Snua -- Sunday, 6 January 2013, at 11:42 p.m.
  • Play 43
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 6 January 2013, at 9:39 p.m.
    • Play 43
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 6 January 2013, at 9:51 p.m.
  • Play 43
    higonefive -- Monday, 7 January 2013, at 12:14 a.m.
    • Play 43
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 7 January 2013, at 1:44 a.m.
      • Play 43
        higonefive -- Monday, 7 January 2013, at 2:07 a.m.
      • Play 43
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 7 January 2013, at 2:15 a.m.
    • Not really the same thing but...
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 7 January 2013, at 4:18 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 9 January 2013, at 1:35 a.m.
  • Play 43
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 7 January 2013, at 1:27 a.m.
  • Play 43 - Rollout
    Mr Majestyk -- Monday, 7 January 2013, at 4:54 p.m.
    • Play 43 - 15k 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 7 January 2013, at 5:52 p.m.
      • Play 43 - 15k 3-ply XG2 Rollout
        Mr Majestyk -- Monday, 7 January 2013, at 6:24 p.m.
      • Play 43 - 15k 3-ply XG2 Rollout
        higonefive -- Monday, 7 January 2013, at 7:46 p.m.
      • Play 43 - Further Ruminations
        Taper_Mike -- Monday, 7 January 2013, at 11:31 p.m.
      • So as it turns out...
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 8 January 2013, at 3:25 p.m.
        • So as it turns out...
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 8 January 2013, at 3:39 p.m.
          • So as it turns out...
            Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 8 January 2013, at 4:42 p.m.
            • So as it turns out...
              Smcrtorchs -- Tuesday, 8 January 2013, at 5:26 p.m.
      • Play 43 - 15k 3-ply XG2 Rollout
        Chase -- Tuesday, 8 January 2013, at 6:27 p.m.