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Kit's Backgammon Encyclopedia doesn't have any decisions of this type

Posted By: higonefive
Date: Wednesday, 9 January 2013, at 8:53 p.m.

In Response To: Kit's Backgammon Encyclopedia doesn't have any decisions of this type (Timothy Chow)

Phil: "3-away / 5-away: TP(L/T)=19% / 22%, GV(L/T)=0.5 / 0.7"

Mochy: "In general, there are two types of the position in backgammon. A, Race (Race, Holding game, High anchor games …) B, Blitz (Blitz, Prime, Low anchor games …)

3away – 5away Your goal: Win 2points / Opponent’s goal: Win 4points 3away R: similar with $ / B: very late 5away R: similar with $ / B: much earlier than $ Note: 4point is overkill for 3away but very efficient for 5away. So 3away try to avoid 4point-swing game."

What are the gammon rates?

The prospect for blue is real. He can play against a blot. The prospect of white is unreal. Blue has to blot, White has to hit. The gammon chances are not so high for blue. I'll give him just 10%. And then 2,5 for white. 5 - 1,75 = 3,25% to add. 25,25% : 7 = 3,6% for recube vig. 25,25 - 3,6 = 21,65% Fully adjusted take point.

Blue is 4 pips ahead. For a race alone it isn't enough. But it isn't a race alone. Market losers are 66 55 44 33 22 64. Even the only blotting number 65 ia almost a market loser. The big numbers gain in race, the low numbers will put the snipers in better rifle range. There are no anti jokers. The position will improve.

And the lone raider has to pass the canyon. There is no stagecoach and no ringo kid. The doubles 66 44 33, in a race normally a turnaround, would not allow a redouble. 55 is the one and only hail mary move. Any other escaping move will give a shot. Even if he will hit a sniper, the sniper will have life after death from the bar.

Before rolling, white will have roughly 65% on the race alone. I don't know how amalgam all above said, but this will have to count only for 14%, to bring white into the passing zone.

For me a very clear double. The take is in question. I think, it is no bargain, and i would let this one go.

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