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Rollout and variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 1:47 a.m.

In Response To: Kit's Backgammon Encyclopedia doesn't have any decisions of this type (Timothy Chow)

I was White and thought the score would let me take but White's board isn't strong enough.





White is Player 1

score: 2
pip: 103
7 point match
pip: 99
score: 4

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-Ba-BBD-B----C---dadab-b--:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 78.08% (G: 7.00% B: 0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.92% (G: 1.39% B: 0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.85% (G: 7.82% B: 0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.15% (G: 1.65% B: 0.05%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.632
Double:+1.398
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.943 (-0.057)
Double/Take:+1.145 (+0.145)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.934...+0.952)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+1.132...+1.157)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 9 hours 29 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Variant with stronger board. Rollout stopped prematurely because I want to post this now and move on.





White is Player 1

score: 2
pip: 102
7 point match
pip: 99
score: 4

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-Ba-BBD-B----C---dacbb-b--:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 75.59% (G: 4.83% B: 0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.41% (G: 1.65% B: 0.03%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.03% (G: 5.07% B: 0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.97% (G: 1.54% B: 0.03%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.555
Double:+1.239
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.873 (-0.107)
Double/Take:+0.980
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.020)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
936 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.862...+0.884)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.967...+0.993)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 99.9%
Duration: 3 hours 53 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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