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BGonline.org Forums
A real-life live position that actually occurred...
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: A real-life live position that actually occurred... (ah_clem)
Date: Friday, 11 January 2013, at 5:46 p.m.
Is it too good? I'm not sure,
As a general rule, if I'm not sure it's too good, I double. If my assessment isn't horribly off, I will have doubled a position that's only slightly too good. Even then, my opponent might take. If it's not too good, then I will have made a good double, in which case, whether it's a take or pass, it's up to my opponent to make a mistake one way or the other.
Here, I'm sure it's not too good. There's one immediate horror number, 3-3, and various chances for future horrors (5-1 followed by 3-3 would be one, but there must be quite a few awful sequences). But besides that, Blue will need about 6 rolls on average to bring his last 4 checkers in to his home board (which would still leave White some winning chances. White is an overwhelming favorite (about 85%) to enter in 5 rolls. Of course, White would still to win from there. Some entering rolls would expose another blot. But White has an excellent position for containing Blue, and it's easy to imagine that White's entering roll might catch Blue with 1, 2 or even 3 blots (but probably not 4), so many entering numbers should hit or lead to a future hit.
I'm not 100% sure, either, that it is a take. Which again makes it an easy double. But I'm inclined to take. White's basic take point is about 30%, and White should win at least that much easily, plus White has powerful cube vig at this score, needing only to get to 67% GWC to force Blue to drop a recube.
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