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BGonline.org Forums
2013 New York Metro #4
Posted By: Smcrtorchs In Response To: 2013 New York Metro #4 (Jason Lee)
Date: Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 12:55 a.m.
I would not be surprised if 13/9(3) 6/2 is the correct play, usually at such pip count differences and when white owns 2 points in blue's home, blue can slot almost freely whatever he wants. But I would look around to find an alternative. It does not leave me happy.
What seems important to me here is that white does not advance his backgame to a 2-4 backgame, which should be much more efficient than the 1-4 backgame, especially since blue will not make easily his bar point. Moreover if blue does not make the 2 point now he will have his bar 3 and 2 unmade, which is pretty bad for a bear in. I think the issue should be addressed this turn. My play would be 6/2(2) 13/9(2) and I would slot the 3 pt asap and aggressively if needed from next turn and on.
If 13/9(3) 6/2 turns out to be best, I believe it would be because of timing issues. If we look the timing aspect alone, white should have a very big probability to hit a shot as her timing is very good even for an ace point game if he does not manage to hit something during the bear in. For me this could be the only reason that 13/9(3) 6/2 may be correct, as leaving a shot and recirculating a checker as early as possible, when opp's board is at its worst condition, could prove more valuable than the 2 point. Still I would try my play though.
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