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Rollout - Surprise

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 3 January 2007, at 12:31 p.m.

In Response To: 51S-62R-42? (Stick)

Not a big enough difference between the plays to spill your drink over but interesting nonetheless. Someone mentioned 'what if it was a 3-1' and I agree with Snowie's 3 ply that making the 5 would be clearly correct. What making either of your best inner board points has going for it (aside from that obvious fact) is the unstacking. If there were only 3 checkers on the 8 pt. I believe the hit would be clear.

Money Game
159
161
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 8/4 6/4 0.154
0.5% 16.3% 52.8% 47.2% 10.2% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.118 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 176002 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 23/21 13/9* 0.146 (-0.008)
0.8% 16.5% 53.0% 47.0% 11.7% 0.6%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.110 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 152515 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 24/22 13/9* 0.138 (-0.016)
0.8% 15.8% 53.0% 47.0% 11.6% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.104 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 167510 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
4 R 13/9* 13/11 0.131 (-0.023)
0.8% 16.8% 52.7% 47.3% 12.5% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.099 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 147653 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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