[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Only two candidates worth considering

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 14 January 2013, at 1:54 a.m.

In Response To: Only two candidates worth considering (Timothy Chow)

If you run now, you're down 6 pips (if not hit). 13/36 numbers hit (and you probably have no return shots), but hit-and-no-return chances are large if you don't run, also.

If you don't run now, you'll be on the bar after any 3, 55 or and 64 -- 17/36 numbers -- and be an underdog to hit back (the probability of a hit without hitting back is sizable -- 32%). If you don't run now or later, your plan is to hit a blot and contain it (and not be attacked yourself). But you're a long way from a successful containment position. Of Opp's nonhitting numbers, none give you a shot for at least one roll, and several improve Opp's attack.

So -- it's not automatic that you shouldn't run, just because you're behind in the race. The race may be still be the most winning option. For running, you've rolled quite a good number (only 66 44 63 and 54 would have been better), since only 2's and 43 hit. It seems a close decision at a normal score whether to play 13/5 or 22/14. I think your 4-0/7 lead is an incentive to try to disengage, and this is a pretty good roll with which to try.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.