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Rollout: Only two candidates worth considering

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 14 January 2013, at 10:51 p.m.

In Response To: Only two candidates worth considering (Timothy Chow)

13/5 is the DMP play but it loses a startling (to me) extra number of gammons. The blot on the 5pt is in more danger of getting picked up than I would have thought.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 121 7 point match pip: 135 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BB-CbB---cE-----dbbAb--:1:1:1:62:4:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	22/14	eq: -0.423
	Player: Opponent: 35.76% (G:3.12% B:0.28%) 64.24% (G:15.05% B:0.11%) Conf: ± 0.009 (-0.432...-0.414) Duration: 10 hours 50 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: -0.503 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 36.31% (G:7.88% B:1.08%) 63.69% (G:26.19% B:0.24%) Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.513...-0.493) Duration: 6 hours 14 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 4 moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves and cube Decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

At DMP (truncated RO):

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 121 1 point match pip: 135 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BB-CbB---cE-----dbbAb--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: -0.275
	Player: Opponent: 36.23% (G:7.74% B:0.38%) 63.77% (G:23.35% B:0.41%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.279...-0.271) Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/14	eq: -0.299 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 35.05% (G:2.98% B:0.14%) 64.95% (G:14.47% B:0.22%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.303...-0.295) Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply. 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

For money (truncated RO; someone may want to do a full RO here):

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 121 Money session pip: 135 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BB-CbB---cE-----dbbAb--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	22/14	eq: -0.588
	Player: Opponent: 35.22% (G:2.84% B:0.13%) 64.78% (G:14.46% B:0.17%) Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.600...-0.576) Duration: 3 minutes 42 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: -0.627 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 36.60% (G:7.92% B:0.38%) 63.40% (G:25.13% B:0.39%) Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.642...-0.612) Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply. 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• Only two candidates worth considering
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 8:57 p.m.
  • Only two candidates worth considering
    Chase -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 10:15 p.m.
  • Only two candidates worth considering
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 11:08 p.m.
  • Only two candidates worth considering
    Poseidon -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 12:03 a.m.
  • Only two candidates worth considering
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 1:54 a.m.
  • Only two candidates worth considering
    Mr Majestyk -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 1:56 a.m.
    • Only two candidates worth considering
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 2:21 a.m.
      • Only two candidates worth considering
        Mr Majestyk -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 3:31 a.m.
  • Rollout: Only two candidates worth considering
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 10:51 p.m.
    • Question: Only two candidates worth considering
      Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 9:35 a.m.
      • Question: Only two candidates worth considering
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 5:24 p.m.
        • Question: Only two candidates worth considering
          Stick -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 6:14 p.m.
        • Changing the roll to 52
          Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 16 January 2013, at 11:04 p.m.
          • Changing the roll to 52
            Stick -- Thursday, 17 January 2013, at 5:00 a.m.
            • Changing the roll to 52
              Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 17 January 2013, at 7:54 a.m.
              • Changing the roll to 52
                Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 17 January 2013, at 4:03 p.m.