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Contest! Win free Alcohol!

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 3:51 p.m.

In Response To: Contest! Win free Alcohol! (KenB)

Stat sig does not mean 0%. Do you mean maybe 1%. It also doesn't quite mean the same thing as probability of being the correct play but that is more technical than is needed here.

Here is the more relevant difficulty I think. Suppose that there is a play which is about .100 better in the rollout than in XG+. It won't take that many games to get a high confidence that it is better but there may still be a large amount of uncertainty in how much better. One could keep trying with a different seed and get a bigger difference.

Messages In This Thread

• Contest! Win free Alcohol!
  KenB -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 10:11 p.m.
  • Rollouts *NM*
    KenB -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 10:32 p.m.
    • 51S-55A-F-52D-53@-61 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 12:33 a.m.
    • 43D-53H-64C-11 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 21 January 2013, at 6:54 p.m.
    • A test position for XG3
      Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 23 January 2013, at 8:35 p.m.
    • 51S-22N-32 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 26 January 2013, at 1:41 a.m.
    • 62S-44B-21S-51H-32E-65 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 28 January 2013, at 9:34 p.m.
    • 32S-21X-41 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 29 January 2013, at 7:03 p.m.
    • 62S-21H-42S-41B-65S-21 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 31 January 2013, at 9:26 a.m.
    • 21$-42H-21X-31U-41 — Double Match Point — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 4 February 2013, at 9:10 a.m.
    • 52S-51S-63R-43@-51D-55 — 2-away, 5-away — 4-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 5 February 2013, at 8:16 a.m.
    • 61P-55P-21 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 6 February 2013, at 10:06 a.m.
    • Example from Michael Depreli
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 7 February 2013, at 1:32 a.m.
    • 63S-22B-43Z-42Z-54 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 9 February 2013, at 7:18 a.m.
    • Another example from Michael Depreli
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 February 2013, at 12:53 a.m.
  • Contest! Win free Alcohol!
    Bob koca -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 11:44 p.m.
    • Contest! Win free Alcohol!
      KenB -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 11:58 p.m.
      • Contest! Win free Alcohol!
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 3:51 p.m.
  • Contest! Win free Alcohol!
    Stick -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 1:49 a.m.
    • New clause
      KenB -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 4:36 a.m.
      • New clause
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 3:54 p.m.
  • Contest! Win free Alcohol! - a 0.113 error
    eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 2:47 a.m.
    • DQ'd - but...
      KenB -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 4:31 a.m.
      • DQ'd - but...
        Stick -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 9:25 a.m.
        • DQ'd - but...
          KenB -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 2:04 p.m.
  • Contest! Win free Alcohol!
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 4:43 p.m.
    • Contest! Win free Alcohol!
      Stick -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 5:58 p.m.
      • Contest! Win free Alcohol!
        Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 8:02 p.m.
        • Contest! Win free Alcohol!
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 9:01 p.m.
  • Contest! Win free Alcohol! -- checkerplay or cube decision
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 5:23 p.m.
    • Cubes are ok
      KenB -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 6:04 p.m.
  • Contest! Win free Alcohol!
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 10:07 p.m.
  • Contest! Win free Alcohol!
    Stick -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 10:35 p.m.
  • Real Position #1
    Stick -- Wednesday, 16 January 2013, at 11:11 p.m.
    • Real Position #1
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 16 January 2013, at 11:30 p.m.
      • Real Position #1
        Stick -- Thursday, 17 January 2013, at 4:55 a.m.
      • Real Position #1
        KenB -- Friday, 18 January 2013, at 2:33 a.m.
        • Real Position #1
          Taper_Mike -- Friday, 18 January 2013, at 5:56 a.m.
          • Real Position #1
            Bob Koca -- Friday, 18 January 2013, at 10:07 p.m.
            • Real Position #1
              Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 19 January 2013, at 3:28 a.m.
            • Real Position #1
              Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 19 January 2013, at 3:37 a.m.
              • Real Position #1
                Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 19 January 2013, at 4:53 a.m.
              • Real Position #1
                Bob koca -- Saturday, 19 January 2013, at 5:09 p.m.
    • Real Position #1
      Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 17 January 2013, at 7:37 a.m.