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Contest! Win free Alcohol!

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 10:35 p.m.

In Response To: Contest! Win free Alcohol! (KenB)

You could create tons of similar positions where the equity swing and bot decisions were way off according to rollouts. These are the types of problems that I would ignore for your purposes.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 49
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 289
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---------------BBBBBDdebA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 32.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 33.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 67.86% (G:60.70% B:4.28%) 66.90% (G:59.14% B:4.02%)
Cubeless Equities -1.007 -1.939
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.894
Redouble/Take:-2.320 (-1.427)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.894)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.1%






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 49
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 289
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---------------BBBBBDdebA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 49.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 51.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 50.62% (G:41.83% B:4.06%) 48.91% (G:41.90% B:2.50%)
Cubeless Equities -0.471 -0.844
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.277±0.127 (-0.404..-0.150)
Redouble/Beaver:-1.936 (-1.659)±0.477 (-2.413..-1.459)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.277)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 36.1%
Rollout details
180 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92333743
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 hours 34 minutes

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