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Changing the roll to 52

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 17 January 2013, at 7:54 a.m.

In Response To: Changing the roll to 52 (Stick)

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This makes a lot of sense to me. We all know that proximate effects in backgammon tend to swamp anything that might happen 2 or 3 rolls downstream. In this case, 14 rolls have White hitting or pointing on the 22pt. Afterwards, only 13 rolls in 36 give Blue a return hit on the 22pt. Then, if Blue has not picked up or covered his 5pt blot, White will have 15/36 probability to hit it. From there, Blue may have as many as 13 ways in 36 to use his hit blot to make anchor on the 22pt. Only 23/36th of the time, will White be able to shoot at other Blue blots, and win a gammon because of the second checker. (14/36)*(11/36)*(15/36)*(23/36) = very small compared to (14/36)*(25/36). Mike

Messages In This Thread

• Only two candidates worth considering
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 8:57 p.m.
  • Only two candidates worth considering
    Chase -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 10:15 p.m.
  • Only two candidates worth considering
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 11:08 p.m.
  • Only two candidates worth considering
    Poseidon -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 12:03 a.m.
  • Only two candidates worth considering
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 1:54 a.m.
  • Only two candidates worth considering
    Mr Majestyk -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 1:56 a.m.
    • Only two candidates worth considering
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 2:21 a.m.
      • Only two candidates worth considering
        Mr Majestyk -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 3:31 a.m.
  • Rollout: Only two candidates worth considering
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 10:51 p.m.
    • Question: Only two candidates worth considering
      Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 9:35 a.m.
      • Question: Only two candidates worth considering
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 5:24 p.m.
        • Question: Only two candidates worth considering
          Stick -- Tuesday, 15 January 2013, at 6:14 p.m.
        • Changing the roll to 52
          Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 16 January 2013, at 11:04 p.m.
          • Changing the roll to 52
            Stick -- Thursday, 17 January 2013, at 5:00 a.m.
            • Changing the roll to 52
              Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 17 January 2013, at 7:54 a.m.
              • Changing the roll to 52
                Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 17 January 2013, at 4:03 p.m.