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Real Position #1

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 19 January 2013, at 4:53 a.m.

In Response To: Real Position #1 (Taper_Mike)

Good argument. Moreover, in your hypothetical scenario, suppose Ken is in fact playing correctly (according to the rollout) but worshiping at the altar of XGR++. Then he will be constantly lamenting his whopper-sized sins, when in reality it is his god that has feet of clay.

I like your proposal of measuring the difference, although if I understand correctly, your system doesn't distinguish between the following two scenarios:

1. XGR++ says A is slightly better than B; the rollout says B is better and A is a whopper.

2. XGR++ says A is better and B is a whopper; the rollout says B is slightly better than A.

Again, depending on your purpose, these two scenarios can be qualitatively quite different. For example, if you're using XGR++ to alert you to your blunders, but choose to ignore it when XGR++ says you make a small mistake, then a Type 2 error is much more misleading than a Type 1 error. But if you're just interested in memorizing the "best play" and are using XGR++ to tell you what the best play is, then a Type 1 error is much more misleading than a Type 2 error.

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