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Play 42 - Rollout

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Sunday, 20 January 2013, at 2:34 a.m.

In Response To: Play 42 (Mr Majestyk)

I'd rolled a 41 previously and opted for 13/9 6/5 instead of the rapid build alternative of 8/4 6/5. I wanted to curtail XG slotting freely in its outer board and securing a second holding point. This sort of tactic would lead to a cube shortcut sooner than I would have liked. So when XG came up with 14/10 13/11 I was somewhat surprised. So what's with this play beyond the duplication factor?

1. The number of specific 6's available. After 8/4 6/4 or 14/8, XG has one viable specific 6 whereas, after the double slot XG has three. You may think you've established an asset in the 4pt but it comes at a cost of having limited diversity. Hence the asset creates a liability.

2. Weighing the cost of liabilities. I can hit with any 4 & 3 but only 9 hit & cover. Note, 8/4 6/4 also allows for 9 hit and covers. So which of these plays is the greater liability? After making the 4pt, XG will be be forced to expose a blot on 42 41 32 & 26 and ironically end up with 2 blots but positionally much worse off and with little future constructive use. Even if I get lucky with a hit n' cover, XG will secure a second holding point on the 10 or 11pt.

NBM





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-----AD-CA-afC---cBcb---A-:0:0:-1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 42
1.Rollout114/10 13/11eq: +0.318
Player:
Opponent:
58.42% (G:11.44% B:0.50%)
41.58% (G:8.45% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.305...+0.331) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout114/8eq: +0.279 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
57.60% (G:9.51% B:0.30%)
42.40% (G:8.73% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.267...+0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: +0.270 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
57.55% (G:10.14% B:0.41%)
42.45% (G:8.98% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.256...+0.284) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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