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Rollout & analysis

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Sunday, 20 January 2013, at 4:16 p.m.

In Response To: 14 checkers-back backgame (movie) (Mr Majestyk)

Its considerably easier to analyze a position from the cheap seats, armed with a rollout and two leisurely days to evaluate the problem. Mochy did spend quite a bit of time on the problem which, gave me an opportunity to decide what play I was going to make. I struggled with competing pro's & cons and made the play I believed to be a reasonable compromise. In a sense, I excused myself from not knowing what was going on and opted for 15/13 15/14. Interestingly, from a psychological perspective I made the play that provided the least mental resistence! IMO, this is the domain - the mental process we can learn the most from. This, after all, is the psychology of backgammon!!!!

To the position,

All three candidates maintain the 15pt. If you do get hit and fall behind in the race you'll be glad for the extra contact. In turn, the 15pt promotes some connectivity and a useful landing spot for a blot when the race becomes a viable option. Blue needs to equalise board strength and until he does the 15pt figures to be an asset, that is until the dust settles. Relinquishing it now creates a liability. I suspect 6/3 allows the 15pt to be maintained for longer than the other two candidates while maintaining outfield integrity. The question is, should blue attempt to equalise now while White is somewhat ill prepared to contain a blot? Competing strategies as suggested by the rollout indicate either is fine until someone proves otherwise!





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 150
9 point match
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---AABC-B-b-cC---dBf----A-:0:0:-1:12:0:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 12
1.Rollout16/3eq: -0.159
Player:
Opponent:		47.48% (G:8.54% B:0.36%)
52.52% (G:16.85% B:0.40%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.164...-0.154) - [83.6%]
Duration: 56 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.162 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		47.49% (G:9.53% B:0.39%)
52.51% (G:17.10% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.167...-0.158) - [16.4%]
Duration: 59 minutes 38 seconds
3.Rollout18/5eq: -0.170 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		47.26% (G:9.35% B:0.38%)
52.74% (G:16.46% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.175...-0.165) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

NBM

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