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Rollout

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Monday, 21 January 2013, at 4:26 p.m.

In Response To: QF 54 (mtuhtan)

A variation of this position (one more checker on 6pt, one less on 13pt) happened on DailyGammon, but to my opponent. He made a blunder and attacked on 1pt, and if I had to play it, I would probably make it too because of my too fast playing speed.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 103 Unlimited Game Beaver pip: 132 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-CCB----bC----ccBb-bb-:0:0:1:54:0:0:2:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0,298
	Player: Opponent: 57,52% (G:10,31% B:0,36%) 42,48% (G:13,27% B:0,25%) Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,289...+0,306) - [100,0%] Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/4	eq: +0,271 (-0,027)
	Player: Opponent: 57,93% (G:9,95% B:0,29%) 42,07% (G:10,08% B:0,11%) Conf.: ± 0,006 (+0,265...+0,276) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds
3.	XG Roller+	6/1* 5/1	eq: +0,007 (-0,291)
	Player: Opponent: 49,31% (G:9,24% B:0,13%) 50,69% (G:7,50% B:0,12%)
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

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I didn't appreciate how strong 7pt is for priming game plan. Here is the position with 7pt shifted back to 8pt.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 103 Unlimited Game Beaver pip: 134 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-a-B-CC-B---bC----ccBb-bb-:0:0:1:54:0:0:2:0:10 Blue to play 54

1. XG Roller++ 6/1* 5/1 eq: +0,104 Player: Opponent: 52,26% (G:10,52% B:0,11%) 47,74% (G:8,74% B:0,14%) 2. XG Roller++ 13/4 eq: -0,134 (-0,238) Player: Opponent: 46,95% (G:8,78% B:0,20%) 53,05% (G:12,10% B:0,15%) 3. XG Roller++ 13/8 5/1* eq: -0,148 (-0,251) Player: Opponent: 46,24% (G:8,78% B:0,16%) 53,76% (G:12,03% B:0,15%) 4. XG Roller++ 13/9 6/1* eq: -0,183 (-0,287) Player: Opponent: 45,81% (G:9,06% B:0,17%) 54,19% (G:14,96% B:0,22%) 5. XG Roller++ 13/9 8/3 eq: -0,190 (-0,294) Player: Opponent: 44,22% (G:7,99% B:0,17%) 55,78% (G:11,42% B:0,20%)

Messages In This Thread

• QF 54
  mtuhtan -- Sunday, 20 January 2013, at 11:26 a.m.
  • QF 54
    Michael Depreli -- Sunday, 20 January 2013, at 1:36 p.m.
    • QF 54
      smcrtorchs -- Sunday, 20 January 2013, at 2:41 p.m.
    • QF 54
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 20 January 2013, at 9:29 p.m.
      • QF 54
        neilkaz -- Monday, 21 January 2013, at 2:32 a.m.
        • QF 54
          Mr Majestyk -- Monday, 21 January 2013, at 11:35 a.m.
    • QF 54
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 21 January 2013, at 2:09 a.m.
  • QF 54
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 20 January 2013, at 2:28 p.m.
  • QF 54
    Chase -- Sunday, 20 January 2013, at 10:19 p.m.
  • QF 54
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 21 January 2013, at 2:09 a.m.
  • Rollout
    mtuhtan -- Monday, 21 January 2013, at 4:26 p.m.