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43D-53H-64C-11 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 21 January 2013, at 6:54 p.m.

In Response To: Rollouts *NM* (KenB)

–

This one didn’t make it to 99%, but after 46k, I have seen enough to convince me these two plays are tied. XGR++, on the other hand, thinks P (Point) = 6/4*(2) is best.

XGR++ Equity(P) - Equity(I) = 16.7
Rollout Equity(I) - Equity(P) = 2.1

Swing = 18.8

Key: I = Inside (6/5(2) 6/4), P = Point (6/4*(2))

Explanation of nacbracs

Mike

XGR++ Eval – [P I16.7] "&e
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 166
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--a-E-C---cE--Ac-e-a--A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.XG Roller++6/4*(2) eq: +0.5464
Player:
Opponent:		62.23% (G:19.74% B:1.51%)
37.77% (G:9.58% B:0.35%)
2.XG Roller++6/5(2) 6/4* eq: +0.5297 (-0.0167)
Player:
Opponent:		61.90% (G:20.54% B:1.64%)
38.10% (G:10.35% B:0.49%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Rollout – [I P2.1] "<=46
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 166
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--a-E-C---cE--Ac-e-a--A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout16/5(2) 6/4* eq: +0.5349
Player:
Opponent:		62.11% (G:20.58% B:1.69%)
37.89% (G:10.70% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ±0.0032 (+0.5317...+0.5381) - [82.9%]
Duration: 5 hours 07 minutes
2.Rollout16/4*(2) eq: +0.5327 (-0.0021)
Player:
Opponent:		62.09% (G:19.88% B:1.63%)
37.91% (G:10.04% B:0.38%)		Conf.: ±0.0031 (+0.5297...+0.5358) - [17.1%]
Duration: 4 hours 57 minutes
 
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40669706
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-Jan-16
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
43D-53H-64C-11-tm.xgp
43D-53H-64C-11  [I P2]  "<=46
43D-53H-64C-11  [P I17]  "&e
43D-53H-64C-11  [P I13]  /0.360t

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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