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Safe or all in?

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Thursday, 24 January 2013, at 10:11 a.m.

In Response To: Safe or all in? (Michael Depreli)

I agree with the advice. The gammon race is close here (you have either a 3 roll or a 2 roll position left after the play, and white needs at least 24 pips with 6 crossovers), so ripping the second checker off is very important to increase the gammon wins if we do not get hit. That should result in some 2.5 more gammon wins out of 36 (10% of 25). However, if we get hit, we will lose more often. How often is difficult to say, I'd give it 2 more losses out of 36 (15-20% out of 11), cube less. So at GG I'd rip two, but here (with cube access and a different GV) I'd play safe.

But - if your opponent does not know how to use the cube or how to catch more checkers, ripping 2 might very easily be best.

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