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Here is what I wrote when this position first appeared in Bill Robertie’s forum at TwoPlusTwo. This is not exactly a classic pay-now-or-pay-later situation, but it is close. Here are the three criteria first identified by Kit Woolsey and Hal Heinrich in their essential work New Ideas in Backgammon.
Even if you pay now and are not hit, you may face another similar situation later. That’s why I said above that this is not a true pay-now-or-pay-later position. Nevertheless, that is how will analyze it. The answers to the three questions are all unambiguous. In order, they are no, yes, and yes. Because of this, Red should choose to pay now, while he has the stronger board. Busting his board, with 5/3 5/1, is not going to make his plight any easier. Having made that decision, the next choice is how. Breaking the 8pt is the safest, but doing so takes away an asset Red will need later. Without it, he is even more likely to expose another blot downstream than he is now. Breaking the midpoint is probably better. By playing down, 13/11 13/9, Red can leave just a single direct shot. If he is missed, he should be able lift or cover his blot relatively easily. Two major disadvantages are 1. Red will have done nothing to assist him in clearing his most difficult point, the 18pt, and 2. White will not be forced to sacrifice an anything to hit. He can hit with his spare checker on the 5pt. Breaking the 18pt addresses both of these issues. If Red is not hit, he will have cleared the hardest point. On the other hand, if he is hit, White will most likely have to give up his midpoint, and leave plenty of return shots in the process. Of course, playing 18/16 18/14 leaves 26 shots, but how else is Red going to get off his anchor? Mike | ||||||||||||
