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11 at 1a2a post-Crawford

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 24 January 2013, at 9:23 p.m.

In Response To: 11 at 1a2a post-Crawford (Ian Shaw)

Curiously, 23/21(2) should give Opp the least incentive to double you out of his winning but tenuous position, because none of Opp's roll would leave a blot, and no sequences would give you a take on Opp's following roll. But because Opp's apparently been playing on because of gammon chances, I suspect he wouldn't see it that way, and would double you out after 23/21(2). Keeping the 23 point gives Opp 6/36 bad numbers and some gammon chances if he plays on. Who knows how Opp would weigh that. Moving up to the 22 point makes only 63 a blotter, and fewer gammon losses but perhaps enough for Opp to wrongly decide to play on.

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