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Normally, it is a bit too clever to make the 8pt, and hope to roll a 1. When the timing is tight like this, it is too easy to lose the prime before completing the closeout. In this situation, the risk may be worth it, but it is probably close. At DMP, with a single checker closed out and an optimal arrangement of spares, Blue wins about 24% after White bears off 11 checkers. If Blue makes the 8pt here, then on his next turn 41, 31, 21 and 11 would allow him to break the 2pt to hit, while keeping his prime intact. A few large rolls, such as 65, would play awkwardly, but only 44 and 55 would cause Blue to crack. I like it. Mike | ||||||||||||
