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BGonline.org Forums
Doubles Aces - Simple ou Funky?
Posted By: happyjuggler0 In Response To: Doubles Aces - Simple ou Funky? (pontiac)
Date: Sunday, 2 December 2007, at 6:48 p.m.
First of all, I invite both mamabear and Caryl to count the number of sae landing places after 13/12(2) and after 13/11(2). They are the same, which is another way of saying it isn't much easier, if at all, to bear in from the 11pt than from the 12pt. The only roll I see that is additive is double 1's, without a counterpart from the 12pt.
The reasoning behind 4/2 is as follows:
Blue isn't going to blotting soon unless he rolls a hideous double which kills something like the 7pt or 6pt. When will blue blot? Only after stripping all the spares, and probably after clearing several of the intervening points (between the back anchor and home) as well.
If you want a good home board for the day when blue must blot, then the best way to build that board is to slot everything, or at least slot the higher points, noting that checkers have a way of filling the 1pt without any effort. With this in mind, one also ought to note that when clearing the few spares, and when clearing those intervening points, blue isn't likely to have much wiggle room on where those checkers wind up.
Therefore a play that stacks right now on the 3pt for example could prove to be quite ugly. But when everything is slotted, the odds increase over the next several rolls that blue can cover them all once, instead of having to put two checkers on several points and none on one or two others. For this reason I also don't like 7/6 that much, it makes it harder to place checkers where I want them.
The key is understanding that blue will have absolutely no reason to leave a hittable blot 99% of the time, and thus will have plenty of time to cover the inner board blots before that day comes, if it ever comes. Blue has what, a 50 pip lead? No need to ever hit white at all, and white wouldn't leave a blot without blue's inner board being holey, therefore there is no gammon opportunity cost to inner board blotting.
Play it out in gnu a few times with 4/2. See how easy it is to cover all the inner board points before blotting in the outer board.
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