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One of many interesting decisons from this weekend's telecasts

Posted By: Smcrtorchs
Date: Sunday, 3 February 2013, at 11:05 a.m.

In Response To: One of many interesting decisons from this weekend's telecasts (Chuck Bower)

I would double and take this. Takepoint for white according to my calculations is 26.5 & 1 percent for recube vig = 25.5. I am confident for both double and take, because it is not the first time I count all those little scenarios where white can win. It is difficult for me to break down all the small possibilities in a written text, but I will give it a try.

First of all I will assume that blue will try and make the 12 point to block white's 66. This would mean that he would bring his remaining checker around and then break his anchor while trying to bear in.

White should get at least 7.5 hitting chances from this procedure on average.

Then assuming a 62 roll from blue, if white enters next turn (31%) and blue fails to hit (around 66%), white would be the favorite with around 60% winning chances. This 60% estimation comes from knowing that for even pip counts of around 65 the player on roll has 60% chance to win. I assumed for simplification reasons that both players pip count would be 64 in this case. I explain how I came up with 64 for both sides at the end of the post. This scenario gives white 31*66*60 = around 12% winning chances.

For the scenario where blue breaks his 12 point after 3 rolls and white rolls a 66 later I will give white at least an extra 4% winning chances. Again I could break this down to different branches scenarios, but I hope it is clear.

4+7.5+12= 23.5

But I did left out some other possibilities iIke white entering on his second roll and being missed. And i do feel that I have been conservative at the first and third scenario. So adding those possibilities together should make it a clear take.

Blue's pip count earlier was calculated 64 as 80-2*8 (an average roll is 8.1666, but I made it 8 for simplification purposes) . White's pip count was calculated as 64 after I deducted 9 pips for the entering roll. 9 is the average number of pips for (61,62,63,64,65). l I excluded 66 for simplifications reasons as blue might not make his 12 anyways. 70-9 =61 and I added 3 pips for extra wastage for white. Now that I see the position again I realize that I probably should have added an extra pip or 2 for white's wastage, and this would bring white's percentage of winning after he enters and blue misses to 56 instead of 60 (deduct 2 per cent for each pip) so this would give 31*66*56 around 11.2 instead of 12 winning chances. Ok but I still believe it is a take.

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