BGonline.org Forums

Beaver/Raccoon Effects on the 3rd Roll

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 4 December 2007, at 8:52 a.m.

In Response To: Beaver/Raccoon Effects on the 3rd Roll (Stick)

So there's 22 shots, right? I think White can take this if he misses, but for now, let's say that he drops after a miss.

For money: 22-14 = 8 points in 36 games if he doesn't double. Blue may be able to take if he rolls 16 from the bar, but we'll ignore that.

Suppose White hits. At that point let's call him an 85% favorite, winning 15% gammons. Weighted with gammons as 1/2, that's a 92.5% favorite.

2(22(92.5%) - 14) = 2(20.5 - 14) = a lot more than 8 points in 36 games (13 using real math).

So easy double, easy take IMO.

Messages In This Thread

• Beaver/Raccoon Effects on the 3rd Roll
  Stick -- Sunday, 2 December 2007, at 7:56 p.m.
  • Beaver/Raccoon Effects on the 3rd Roll
    pontiac -- Sunday, 2 December 2007, at 10:14 p.m.
  • Beaver/Raccoon Effects on the 3rd Roll
    Caryl Stephanson -- Monday, 3 December 2007, at 7:14 p.m.
  • Beaver/Raccoon Effects on the 3rd Roll
    Keene -- Monday, 3 December 2007, at 10:45 p.m.
  • Beaver/Raccoon Effects on the 3rd Roll
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 4 December 2007, at 8:52 a.m.
    • Beaver/Raccoon Effects on the 3rd Roll
      Stick -- Tuesday, 4 December 2007, at 8:32 p.m.
      • Beaver/Raccoon Effects on the 3rd Roll
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 4 December 2007, at 11:18 p.m.
  • Beaver/Raccoon Effects on the 3rd Roll
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 4 December 2007, at 8:48 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 5 December 2007, at 5:10 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 6 December 2007, at 5:48 a.m.
      • Rollout
        Stick -- Thursday, 6 December 2007, at 5:57 a.m.
        • Rollout
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 6 December 2007, at 7:41 a.m.