I think this position merits more attention than it was given. I give a variant below where XGR+ favors the obvious play over the QF play.
       
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 131
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---aaBEBB-A-fB---b-b-b--aA:1:-1:1:51:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/20 6/5 | eq: +0.543 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 70.69% (G:27.82% B:1.36%)
29.31% (G:5.81% B:0.19%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24* 10/5 | eq: +0.480 (-0.063) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.18% (G:29.09% B:1.38%)
32.82% (G:5.26% B:0.19%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 131
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---aaBEBB-A-eB---b-c-b--aA:1:-1:1:51:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24* 10/5 | eq: +0.426 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.52% (G:25.86% B:1.13%)
33.48% (G:5.73% B:0.22%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24* 8/3* | eq: +0.383 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.41% (G:31.72% B:1.70%)
36.59% (G:8.23% B:0.48%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | Bar/20 6/5 | eq: +0.364 (-0.061) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.81% (G:24.53% B:1.48%)
34.19% (G:8.63% B:0.27%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21