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OLM 2013-02-10

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 11 February 2013, at 6:20 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 2013-02-10 (Jason Lee)





White is XG Roller++

score: 0
pip: 80
5 point match
pip: 88
score: 1

Blue is BGO Readers
XGID=aBBCB-B---B--A---b-cAbadb-:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Looks like double/pass to me. Against a 5-point board, a single checker on the bar will fan on the first two tries about half the time.

P( enter on 1st try ) = 11/36
P( enter on 2nd try ) = P( fan on 1st try ) * P( enter on 2nd try ) = (25/36)*(11/36)

P( enter on 1st or 2nd try ) = 11/36 + (25/36)*(11/36) = (11/36)*(61/36) = 671/1296 = 51.8%

P (fan on first two tries ) = 48.2%.

Even though XG can turn the game around when he does come in, he loses way too much equity when he dances to justify a take.

Double/Pass

Mike

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