RO: One of many interesting decisons from this weekend's telecasts

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RO: One of many interesting decisons from this weekend's telecasts

Posted By: Philippe Michel
Date: Saturday, 16 February 2013, at 2:57 p.m.

In Response To: XGR+: One of many interesting decisons from this weekend's telecasts (Timothy Chow)

Full rollout has it as a small pass, although it sees 1% less pseudo-cubeless wins.
Detailed statistics were 138 RD to 8 / Take (out of 1296 trials) and 191 RD/Pass with White hitting in only 13% of the games.
That's a lot of redoubles for someone starting with an equity of about -1, but it looks like most of them must occur in the first few rolls, if White jokers his way out while still standing well in the race. After that, hit/dance seems to be a barely profitable double or a non-double with a narrow doubling window thereafter.
Maybe XGR+ could be led astray regarding recube vig if it "sees" the first phase but the later one is beyond its horizon ?
The score (after 0 games) is: GNUbg 4, You 2 (match to 9 points)
Move number 4: You on roll, cube decision?

GNUbg 70

You 80
Position ID: u88GAEDb7YAkAA Match ID: UQkgAUAAEAAE

• You doubles

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity +0.490 (Money: +0.488)

Cubeful equities:

1. Double, pass +1.000

2. Double, take +1.010 +0.010

3. No double +0.825 -0.175

Proper cube action: Redouble, pass

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Player You owns 2-cube 0.741 0.012 0.000 - 0.259 0.007 0.000 +0.490 +0.825

Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.011 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001

Player GNUbg owns 4-cube 0.744 0.012 0.000 - 0.256 0.008 0.000 +1.073 +1.010

Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.006 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 674687549 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]