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Rollout

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 16 February 2013, at 5:10 p.m.

In Response To: Too good? (John O'Hagan)

Time to cash. The 4-cube gammon value for the leader ATS is .39. Gammons/losses per the RO are about 1.6 to 1 so cashing would clearly be correct if it was a "cash now or play on for the rest of the game" decision. You can double before any of your rolls of course so frequently it's correct to play on even if the gammons/losses ratio is well below the reciprocal of the gammon value. This is especially true when you can either cash or offer an efficient redouble when things go awkwardly.

This however is not the kind of position where you'll be able to cash or offer an efficient recube if things go badly. Going badly here means that the oppt hits a 17/1 shot and suddenly you're in about a 10% position.

Most of Black's wins occur when he hits a shot on his next shake: The anti-joker 33 leaves 15 shots and 2 blots, 64 and 55 each leave 11 & 1, while everything else except 66,65, and 44 leave a 17 to 1 or 35 to 1 fly shot. That adds up to around a 7% chance of Black hitting you on his next shake.

When there's this big a chance of an immediate turnaround, you generally need to cash unless you're real close to the 2.5 to 1 (ATS) ratio of gammons/losses.

is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 108
13 point match
pip: 56
score: 6

is Player 1
XGID=aCCCCB-------b--A-bbccb---:2:1:1:00:6:5:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 89.24% (G:15.99% B:0.08%) 90.14% (G:14.94% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 10.76% (G:0.66% B:0.01%) 9.86% (G:0.45% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.901 +1.384
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.934 (-0.066)±0.002 (+0.932..+0.935)
Redouble/Take:+1.384 (+0.384)±0.003 (+1.381..+1.387)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

How about money? Closer but cashing is still correct.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 108
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 56
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aCCCCB-------b--A-bbccb---:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 89.30% (G:16.77% B:0.03%) 89.65% (G:16.49% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 10.70% (G:0.60% B:0.02%) 10.35% (G:0.57% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.948 +1.905
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.975 (-0.025)±0.002 (+0.973..+0.977)
Redouble/Take:+1.836 (+0.836)±0.004 (+1.832..+1.839)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

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