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41 for White

Posted By: Chase
Date: Monday, 18 February 2013, at 2:16 a.m.

In Response To: 41 for White (John O'Hagan)

First, I think we need to know what P2 should do with the cube if P1 makes the 4pt on his head. To get a rough estimation, let's assume P2 always wins if he rolls a 2 from the bar and always loses if he misses.

If P2 holds onto the cube, he hits and wins 31% -- leaving him leading 4a6a for 64% MWC. He hits and loses 69% -- leaving him trailing 8a2a for 12% MWC. This works out to (.31 x 64) + (.69 x 12) = 28% MWC.

If P2 cubes, he rolls for the match, giving him 31% MWC. So cubing looks correct.

P1's MWC if he makes the 4pt, then, are 69%. How does he do if he plays safe?

I don't have a good way of estimating P1's winning chances here, so I won't walk through my thinking. But based on a lot of simplistic assumptions, one being that this becomes a straight race if P1 doesn't hit now, I'm getting P1 winning the game about 68%, leaving him still with two more points to win.

So, assuming both my math and estimates are reasonably close, it looks clear to make the 4pt on P2's head.

That's the best I can do with this. I look forward to John's analysis.

Messages In This Thread

• 41 for White
  John O'Hagan -- Monday, 18 February 2013, at 12:51 a.m.
  • 41 for White
    Chase -- Monday, 18 February 2013, at 2:16 a.m.
  • 41 for White
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 February 2013, at 6:38 p.m.
  • RO
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 19 February 2013, at 2:31 p.m.