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Rollout: A pretty board and an ugly stack

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 18 February 2013, at 6:23 p.m.

In Response To: A pretty board and an ugly stack (Timothy Chow)

This position actually came up when I was trailing 7a5a, when it's a huge redouble and a clear pass. I whoppered by failing to double because it looked like a clear ND for money to me and I didn't think the score would be enough to compensate. The bot agrees that it's not a redouble for money but it's closer than I expected. I was thinking that Blue would win only about 60% cubeless from here.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 134
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=a--aBBBB-AA-b---Abadb-Db--:1:1:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 65.26% (G: 25.28% B: 1.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.74% (G: 12.29% B: 0.49%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.86% (G: 26.04% B: 1.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.14% (G: 12.23% B: 0.56%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.446
Redouble:+0.931
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.734
Redouble/Take:+0.672 (-0.061)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.266)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.018 (+0.716...+0.752)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.030 (+0.643...+0.702)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 11 hours 31 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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