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41 for White

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 18 February 2013, at 6:38 p.m.

In Response To: 41 for White (John O'Hagan)

For a rough first approximation, PoH will win 2/3 of the time. Playing safe gives us some chances of attacking next roll, but not very good chances; usually we'll just get into a slightly better race. At DMP, then, PoH looks very clear.

What about gammons? Should Black cube from the bar after PoH? Black would be risking about 20% to gain about 38% so if he's no worse than a 2-to-1 underdog then he'll be inside his doubling window. Looks close so I'm not sure. But anyway, if Black cubes then gammons are irrelevant. So if the cube decision is close then the DMP play should still be best.

8/4* 5/4.

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