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RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 19 February 2013, at 2:31 p.m.

In Response To: 41 for White (John O'Hagan)

If you choose 8/4x 5/4 or the non-hitting 6/2 3/2, the opponent doesn't have a redouble. Hitting 8/4x 5/4 is the best play ATS while 6/2 3/2 is best at DMP. Not hitting is worse ATS since it's likely to lead to a race which will give Black good chances at finding an efficient recube.

is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 73
13 point match
pip: 68
score: 7

is Player 1
XGID=-BACaCD-B-------a--bbbbbc-:2:-1:1:41:7:5:0:13:10
to play 41

1.Rollout18/4* 5/4eq: +0.213
Player:
Opponent:		68.35% (G:2.54% B:0.05%)
31.65% (G:7.63% B:0.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.210...+0.216) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 3/2eq: +0.151 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		68.36% (G:0.21% B:0.00%)
31.64% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.147...+0.155) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23.6 seconds
3.Rollout18/4* 3/2eq: +0.147 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		65.44% (G:2.61% B:0.01%)
34.56% (G:2.67% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.144...+0.150) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35.0 seconds
4.Rollout16/5 6/2eq: +0.143 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:		68.12% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
31.88% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.139...+0.147) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23.4 seconds
5.Rollout16/2 5/4* eq: +0.107 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:		64.39% (G:2.33% B:0.01%)
35.61% (G:1.62% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.103...+0.110) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.6 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

Should the opponent redouble after 8/4x 5/4? Here's the RO:

is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 77
13 point match
pip: 63
score: 7

is Player 1
XGID=aBACBBD-A-------a--bbbbbc-:2:-1:-1:00:7:5:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 31.71% (G:7.67% B:0.30%) 32.41% (G:5.14% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 68.29% (G:2.66% B:0.06%) 67.59% (G:2.59% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities -0.273 -0.230
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.211±0.003 (-0.214..-0.208)
Redouble/Take:-0.230 (-0.019)±0.004 (-0.234..-0.226)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.211)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

How about after 6/2 3/2?

is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 73
13 point match
pip: 63
score: 7

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBaCC-B-------a--bbbbbc-:2:-1:-1:00:7:5:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 31.67% (G:0.08% B:0.00%) 31.61% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 68.33% (G:0.26% B:0.00%) 68.39% (G:0.30% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities -0.367 -0.261
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.149±0.003 (-0.152..-0.146)
Redouble/Take:-0.261 (-0.112)±0.001 (-0.263..-0.260)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.149)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 23.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

What's the DMP play with White's 41?

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 73
1 point match
pip: 68
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BACaCD-B-------a--bbbbbc-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10
to play 41

1.Rollout16/2 3/2eq: +0.368
Player:
Opponent:		68.40% (G:0.28% B:0.00%)
31.60% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.367...+0.369) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11.2 seconds
2.Rollout16/5 6/2eq: +0.362 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		68.11% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
31.89% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.361...+0.363) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.4 seconds
3.Rollout18/4* 5/4eq: +0.354 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		67.70% (G:2.75% B:0.02%)
32.30% (G:4.81% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.352...+0.356) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.9 seconds
4.Rollout18/4* 3/2eq: +0.309 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		65.44% (G:2.61% B:0.01%)
34.56% (G:2.67% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.307...+0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31.4 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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